The 2026 Formula 1 season looms as one of the sport’s great unknowns, with sweeping technical regulations set to reshape the competitive order. Former Grand Prix winner Johnny Herbert believes no one can confidently predict who will emerge as title contenders, but the three-time race winner is certain of one thing: Max Verstappen will ensure Red Bull navigates the upheaval in the correct direction. As teams prepare for the most significant rule changes in over a decade, the four-time world champion’s influence within his squad could prove decisive.
Herbert refuses to make 2026 predictions amid regulation uncertainty
Johnny Herbert, who competed in Formula 1 from 1989 through 2000 and claimed three victories during his career, knows firsthand the difficulty of forecasting outcomes when regulations undergo fundamental changes. The British former driver has adopted a cautious stance regarding 2026, acknowledging the sheer number of variables at play. “I’m going into this with a blank slate. We don’t yet know who will win the championship,” Herbert explained in a recent interview. Multiple drivers possess the potential to contend for the title, he suggested, but unknown factors surrounding the new power unit and chassis regulations make concrete predictions impossible at this stage. Teams face challenges ranging from power delivery characteristics to aerodynamic philosophy, all of which could shuffle the competitive deck in unexpected ways.
Norris enters crucial season as reigning champion
Herbert’s analysis begins with current world champion Lando Norris, who secured the 2025 title in what proved to be a breakthrough campaign for both driver and team. The McLaren driver demonstrated considerable growth throughout last season, and Herbert expects that development to continue. “He grew enormously during the 2025 season and will be a stronger, more complete driver this year,” the former racer observed. Norris will face internal pressure from teammate Oscar Piastri, who Herbert believes needs to rediscover his confidence and prove himself as the quicker driver within the McLaren garage. The Australian showed flashes of pace in 2025 but inconsistency prevented him from matching his teammate’s overall performance. For McLaren, the challenge extends beyond driver development. The Woking-based squad must provide both drivers with machinery capable of replicating last year’s speed advantage, while recognizing that the new regulations will likely compress the competitive field. A strong start to the season will be essential, yet Herbert anticipates a closer battle across the grid than recent campaigns have delivered.
McLaren must deliver on technical promise
The papaya team’s engineering group faces immense pressure to interpret the 2026 regulations correctly. Having established themselves as the benchmark in 2025, McLaren now carries the burden of expectation. Any misstep in power unit integration or aerodynamic concept could see them slip backwards, regardless of their drivers’ abilities. Herbert emphasized that providing Norris and Piastri with competitive tools remains the team’s primary responsibility, particularly given the condensed development window teams have faced preparing for the new era.
Verstappen’s leadership will guide Red Bull through transition
When assessing Verstappen and Red Bull’s prospects, Herbert admitted uncertainty about where they will stand competitively. What remains beyond doubt, however, is the Dutchman’s capacity to steer his team toward the optimal direction during periods of transition. “Max Verstappen will always push himself, but more importantly, he will push Red Bull and ensure they head the right way,” Herbert stated. Evidence of this influence emerged during the second half of 2025, when Red Bull showed selective competitiveness on certain circuits before strengthening noticeably toward the season’s conclusion. Verstappen’s dominant performance in Abu Dhabi demonstrated both his driving prowess and the improved connection he felt with the RB21. That comfort level, Herbert suggested, resulted partly from the driver’s technical feedback guiding development throughout the year. The four-time champion’s engineering understanding and communication skills have long been regarded as among the paddock’s finest, qualities that become even more valuable when regulations reset the technical playing field.
Mercedes revival hinges on Russell’s role
George Russell will play a pivotal part in any Mercedes resurgence, according to Herbert’s assessment. The British driver delivered several strong performances in 2025 despite machinery that fell short of Red Bull and McLaren’s pace for much of the campaign. Russell’s technical acumen and consistency position him well to maximize whatever package Mercedes produces for the new regulatory cycle. His ability to extract performance while providing clear feedback to the engineering team mirrors some of the qualities Herbert praised in Verstappen, suggesting Mercedes have their own capable leader to guide development direction.
Hamilton represents Ferrari’s greatest unknown
The former driver reserved particular intrigue for Lewis Hamilton‘s switch to Ferrari, describing the seven-time world champion as “the biggest unknown factor” heading into 2026. Hamilton endured a difficult final season with Mercedes, managing just a single sprint race victory while struggling to match Russell’s consistency. The question now centers on whether the 40-year-old can rediscover the form that brought him seven titles. “Can he find his old form? Can he show that special something from earlier in his career?” Herbert asked. Ferrari’s technical package will certainly influence the answer, but Hamilton’s ability to adapt to a new environment and extract performance from unfamiliar machinery will define whether his bold career move succeeds or disappoints. The Maranello squad have invested heavily in securing Hamilton’s services, banking on his experience and speed to complement Charles Leclerc and drive the team toward championship contention.
What the regulation reset means for 2026
The 2026 season represents F1’s boldest technical gamble in years, with new power units emphasizing electrical power delivery and chassis regulations promoting lighter, more nimble cars. This combination of factors creates genuine uncertainty about which teams have correctly interpreted the rules and which philosophies will prove dominant. Herbert’s reluctance to predict outcomes reflects the paddock’s wider uncertainty, where even team principals admit to limited knowledge about their rivals’ preparations. For drivers like Verstappen, Norris, Russell and Hamilton, the challenge extends beyond pure speed. Their ability to guide technical development, communicate feedback effectively, and adapt to unexpected characteristics will prove as important as raw talent. The 2026 championship may ultimately belong to whichever driver best combines these qualities with a competitive package, making driver influence on team direction more crucial than ever before.
